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research · February 03, 2026

Bitcoin Drawdown Nears 40%; Weakness Suggests Lower Prices Coming

Galaxy

This report was originally sent directly to clients of Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management on February 1, 2026 and posted to Galaxy's Research library on February 2, 2026. Subscribe to receive this commentary directly to your inbox.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin dropped 15% between Monday, Jan. 28 and Saturday, Jan. 31, with the move escalating into the weekend. Saturday alone saw a 10% move that spurred one of the largest liquidation events in history, with more than $2 billion in long liquidations across futures trading venues. The price action brought BTCUSD as low as $75,644 on Coinbase Saturday, drifting below the U.S. ETFs’ average cost basis of $84k by as much as -10% on Saturday. At one point, BTCUSD pierced Strategy’s average cost basis of $76,037, and it nearly reached its 1-year low of $74,420 (achieved during the April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum”). 46% of Bitcoin supply is now underwater (i.e., the coins previously moved onchain when prices were higher). January close on Saturday evening saw Bitcoin complete 4 consecutive red monthly candles for the first time since 2018.

With the exception of 2017, Bitcoin has never experienced a 40% drawdown from all-time high that didn’t extend to 50+% from ATH within 3 months (a 50% drawdown from all-time high today would place BTC at $63k). There’s a significant gap in onchain ownership between $82k and $70k, which may increase the likelihood that Bitcoin trades lower in the near term to test demand in that range. Realized price is around $56k and the 200-week moving average is around $58k (note that these metrics climb higher every day that BTCUSD trades above them).

At the moment, we still see little evidence of significant accumulation from whales or long-term holders, although long-term holder profit taking has begun to notably abate. Catalysts remain hard to find and narratives are also working against Bitcoin as it fails to trade along with gold and silver as part of a market-wide “debasement hedge trade.” While passage of crypto market structure legislation (the “CLARITY Act”) could act as a near-term exogenous catalyst, odds of passage have diminished in recent weeks, and we see any positive momentum generated by passage more likely to yield benefit to altcoins than BTC.

While it could see chop around the historic max discount-to-ETF-cost-basis of -10% (currently around $76k), for the reasons above, there is a significant chance that BTC drifts towards the bottom of the supply gap ($70k) and then potentially tests the realized price ($56k) and 200-week moving average ($58k) over the coming weeks and months (though the longer it takes, convergence to those metrics could be at higher prices than today’s values). Those levels have historically marked cycle bottoms and made strong entry points for long-term investors.

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